Entries Tagged 'Uncategorized' ↓
February 10th, 2009 — Uncategorized

Could you guess on what material was the painting drawn?
You are right, it is a living material. I found the beard almost real?
This was one of the paintings presented at a paintings competition at Keys west in Florida USA.
xxx
Watch out for the next one.

Do you like this babe?
February 5th, 2009 — books, Family stories, Reflexion, Uncategorized

Je savoure encore en ce moment ‘le commencement d’un monde ‘ de Jean Claude Guillebaud.
J’ai lu et relu les chapitres sur ‘un rendez vous pour l’islam’. Une perception et projection de l’Islam très intéressantes. Je dirais que l’opinion de l’auteur est optimiste par rapport à ma projection. Que suis-je pour avoir une opinion avisé sur le sujet ? Par contre en opposition de la conférence que j’ai assisté l’année dernière et le livre que j’ai parcourue d’Alexandre Del Valle, je conclu que Jean Claude Guillebaud a plus d’espoir sur le monde musulman que les autres et il pense que les poussées extrémistes s’estomperont. Chapeau à Jean Claude Guillebaud, qui s’est bien documenté.
J’aurai tellement aimé que le rêve de Tariq Ramadan dans « Islam, la face à face des civilisations, quel projet pour quelle modernité. » se réalise. Même la sincérité de Tariq Ramadan avec ses grands discours pacificateurs est en doute ! Alexandre nous met en garde ! Tariq serait un cheval de Troie ? Qui croire ?
Islam en somme est ébullition. Allons-nous subir la victoire des extrémistes sur les modérés ? La masse des islamistes économiquement faibles vont-ils être menés par les radicaux ou le tempérés ? L’islam modèle turque ou indonésien ou encore Iranien ou Iraquien ?
Enfin seul l’avenir nous dira. A quand la laïcité dans les pays de l’Islam ?
February 3rd, 2009 — Entrepreneurship, Mauritius, People
I invite you to visit a St Mary’s school mate’s site. I would have loved to see more Watercolors from Mauritius!
Are we in Mauritius creating enough opportunity for our artists to prove themselves and reaping income from their art whilst creating the notoriety of the country?
Watercolors
by
Paul Comarmond
A self-taught artist, Paul Comarmond practiced and taught art in Mauritius for several years, winning several awards when still a teenager. Once in North America, he discovered the works of Winslow Homer and other New England watercolorists and this revealed his true calling. Homer’s works in the Bahamas recalled him of his native land and Maine and Vermont reflected his views of his adoptive land, Ontario.
Fascinated by the possibilities and the challenges of watercolor as well as the chemistry involved in its making, Paul from then on devoted his life to the discovery of the medium. Watercolor remains his favourite art form.
Delacroix said it: “ I have never found transparency such as the one found in watercolors.†And as Paul himself puts it: “With no other art form can I obtain such freshness and lightness. There is something extremely sensuous about the fluidity of the water that lay down on paper the pigments of color with soft and gentle strokes.â€
From May to July, 2004, Paul travelled the islands of the Indian Ocean and he gave a watercolor workshop at Antshow in Antananarivo, Madagascar.
This resulted in “Voyage en mer indienne†a series of 35 watercolours on all the islands of the Indian ocean. He spends two months every year in Gros Morne National Park in Newfoundland where he runs watercolour workshops.
An avid traveler, he has a predilection for places with soul. He chooses to connect at a deeper level with the locals when they have a story to tell. |
January 20th, 2009 — Family stories, Mauritius
In today’s issue of Forbes Joel Kotkin writes on the family values of Obama as a model of proper parenting and spirituality for the next generation. In the same line of thoughts, since my last family meeting, both my family nucleus and the extended Yiptong family, I lived in December last, my quest is on the transmission of family values to my grand children.
What are family values?
What exactly makes up a strong family that possesses good family values? A strong family is one that sustains its members — that supports and nourishes the members throughout the span of that family.
What exactly makes up a strong family that possesses good family values? A family that sustains its members — that supports and nourishes the members throughout the span of that family. A strong family unit creates a safe, positive and supportive place for all members to thrive. They are able to utilize resources and to live together in a fairly healthy manner.
The adults in a strong family set the tone. They are good role models that lead by example. They reach out to friends and community and teach their children the importance of doing the same — and that becomes part of who the children are. They work together to solve problems, and they pass their skills on to the next generation. Some important elements of a strong family system are family cohesion, family flexibility and family communication.
Cohesion- In families cohesion would be defined as the feeling of being loved, of belonging to the group and being nurtured by it. Although closeness is good in a family unit, there must be a balance between being together and being separate. A person must be able to develop their individuality, while being supported and confident within the family. A few things that bring a family together are the commitment of other family members, and the spending of time together.
Flexibility- There must be a structure in a family or it will become chaotic and will not be a peaceful setting for a family. Conversely, there must be flexibility or the family becomes rigid and the authority figures become resented. We could compare a successful family to a democracy. There are leaders, but the whole group is involved in the decision making process. Although the leaders are in charge all members develop the ability to cope with stress, and at times lead. While the family works to avoid stressful situations they work together to solve problems, without blaming, criticizing and finding fault with each other. Families that tend to have a strong spiritual base seem to have a sense of well-being that facilitates this working together in times of stress.
Communication- Ever hear the saying, “What we have here is a failure to communicate?†A lack of communication can rip a family apart and destroy them. Things that facilitate communication are the things mentioned so far — family closeness, flexibility, time spent together, spirituality. All members must feel a freedom within the group to express themselves freely.
Another very important factor is the relationship between the “head†couple. In a family that is parented by a happily married couple, people are able to express themselves more freely. What they might say isn’t filtered through the problems of the “guardians.†A happy marriage seems to set the tone in the house. It spills over from the family to the community and a healthy family will be reaching out to help others. They do not tend to isolate themselves from the rest of the world.
A very important thing for families to teach their children is how to make good decisions. If they have watched their parents making well thought out decisions over the years, they will tend to be good decision makers themselves.
A healthy, happy family benefits our whole society. Among the children of strong families there is less crime, less divorce and less emotional problems. They tend to go on and have strong, healthy families of their own, having learned from their folk’s example.
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I reproduce here an interview which was conducted this week.
Carl Anderson was in Mexico City last week to address the VI World Meeting of Families, which was attended by some 10,000 participants. His address Friday was titled “Solidarity and Family.”
Anderson took some time to speak with ZENIT about his address on the concept of solidarity, his impressions of the world encounter, and what he sees as the greatest challenge for the Christian family today.
Q: The topic of your conference was “Family and Solidarity.” Why solidarity?
Anderson: The short answer is that’s the topic they gave me. But this is such an important term for John Paul II. Obviously because of what happened in Poland and in Eastern Europe in the 1980s and 1990s, but more especially I think as part of his vision of renewal for the Church and for society.
Understanding that solidarity in the Christian sense is really understood as a communion of being for others, and that was so central to John Paul II in terms of the theology of the body and his whole understanding of the human person as being connected to other people. So this is the idea of solidarity in the family, and then the family as a model for the greater society of witnessing communion and solidarity, and living a life for others: first in the family, but then outside in the community of larger society.
Q: You went from the idea of unity, drawing on the thought of John Paul II, and then spoke of solidarity, drawing on the thought of Benedict XVI. How did you come to that conclusion?
Anderson: Well, what’s so remarkable to me, although perhaps in the wisdom of Providence it’s just part of what ought to be, [is that] obviously John Paul II and Benedict XVI are two different individuals — they have two different specialties and interests — but there is such a parallel between their two ways of thinking. To see Benedict XVI compliment and build upon this whole idea that John Paul II introduced in terms of solidarity, and unity and communion of persons and what that means, and to see Benedict XVI advance it and broaden it and deepen it, just shows the continuity in Church teaching, and the tradition and life of the Church. So, it is a wonderful thing and I think we are very lucky to have these two great Popes in the history of the Church.
Q: The idea of solidarity in the family seems to be something that happens almost spontaneously. Do you see that solidarity as something that is natural in society, but nevertheless something that is disintegrating?
Anderson: I think that one of the most important insights of John Paul II is this idea that these are not just ideas, but it’s actually built into the very structure of human existence by the Creator as part of his design. If we look at the two great commandments — love of God and love of neighbor — love is built into the very vocation of the human person, at the very center. And therefore it shouldn’t surprise us that the structure of human existence is designed in such a way to lead us to that kind of relationship with each other. And that is one of the most important contributions I think that John Paul II made to the ongoing teaching of the tradition of the Church, and I think that it’s something that we’re only now beginning to see how important it is and what the broad implications are.
Q: What are the major challenges you see for the family in the United States today?
Anderson: Well, it’s hard to know where to begin. Certainly there are the obvious economic, social and cultural pressures. But I think the great challenge that the Christian family faces is to encounter what it means to be a Christian. What it means to say that Jesus is Lord. And to believe what we say in the Creed, and to live that life first within the family, and then outside in greater society. To be a true witness.
Forty years ago, Father Joseph Ratzinger, speaking to a group of students, said that what troubles so many Christians more than the question of whether God exists, is the question of whether Christianity makes a distinctive difference — whether there is something new in society that we look around and we can see, resulting from Christianity. And this kind of distinctive witness, I think, is a challenge that Christian families face, fundamentally.
Is there a difference between the secular society and the way Christians marry, beget their children, raise their children, educate their children, the way they work, the way they treat their employees, the way they treat their customers and the way they vote? Or is it indistinguishable from the secular society?
If it is indistinguishable, then we go back to Father Ratzinger’s great question, then what did Jesus Christ bring that was new? So I think that’s the challenge of Christian families.
Q: President-elect Barack Obama will be taking office Tuesday. Many in the United States see his inauguration as a turning point for the country. What do you see ahead for the United States in 2009?
Anderson: I think much of the press — present company excluded — swings back and forth to extremes. And I think the expectations now for President-elect Obama are very, very high. The challenges that the United States and the world faces are so great that it requires everyone to be committed to finding solutions and working together to find solutions that make sense.
But, from his campaign rhetoric, especially on family issues, on social issues, on pro-life issues, if he moves forward in that direction, it will present very great challenges to many believers who recognize the sanctity of life, whether they are Catholics or Protestants, or Jews — even nonbelievers, to some extent. So I think the expectations are tremendously high for the new president, and everybody wishes that he will find some way out of many of the economic and foreign policy issues.
Q: One last question. What should someone who is participating physically or spiritually in this event take away from the VI World Meeting of Families?
Anderson: The future of this society depends upon the family, the future of the family. This is the decisive place of encounter between the Church and culture today. Therefore the witness of Catholic families must be authentic, they must be very strong, and it must be one that its surrounding community can see.
And it must be one which reflects, and I think Pope Benedict has done this in a tremendous way, reflects the joy of being a follower of Jesus Christ, so that people who are not Christians can look at the Catholic family and say, that’s a way of living that I would like to have, that I would like to participate in. It’s not a series of no’s, it’s a series of yes’s, and it’s a joyful way of living, and it’s a fulfilling way of living. And I want to be a part of that.
January 17th, 2009 — Uncategorized
Quel est le concept de plagiat avons-nous à l’ile Maurice ? Dans un article sur la tricherie à l’université au Québec le sujet est traité particulièrement avec en filigrane les aspects culturels anglo-saxon ou européen et asiatique. Notre société se trouvant dans la confluence des deux courants culturels et dans l’entre deux d’une économie tiers monadiste et d’une économie développée serait confrontée dans le dilemme ? Les techniques sont à l’avance de la réflexion et l’institution des règlements à Maurice. Souvenez-vous des scandales de Cambridge sur les exams de HSC qui étaient à la une au mois de décembre !
Tricher à l’université à l’ère du 2.0
MATHIAS MARCHAL, MÉTRO
14 janvier 2009 06:00
La tricherie universitaire prend parfois des formes insoupçonnées. JonaÂthan, un Québécois qui enseignait l’anglais en Thaïlande, peut en témoigner.
«Tout a commencé quand le directeur de l’école est venu me voir pour me demander si j’étais intéressé à rédiger des rapports sur des livres», raconte Jonathan. Son premier «travail» consiste alors à lire et à résumer un livre de gestion.
Après quelque temps, le jeune homme se rend compte que ses écrits allègent en fait les travaux de maîtrise de son directeur. Comme ce dernier l’a entre-temps recommandé à d’autres «étudiants», le portefeuille de clients de JonaÂthan lui permet de doubler son salaire d’enseignant de l’époque (1 000 $ par mois).
Plus accepté en Asie
«À un moment, je faisais même les travaux d’économétrie de la gouÂverÂneure de la province, se rappelle le jeune enseignant de 32 ans. Son chauffeur venait me chercher le matin pour que je la coache afin qu’elle prépare des présentations pour des travaux qu’elle n’avait même pas préparés elle-même!»
«Au début, je m’appliquais, mais à la fin, j’allais juste sur Google pour faire du copier-coller», ajoute-t-il. Cela dit, Jonathan souhaite relativiser certains aspects de son activité passée. «En Asie, le conÂcept de plagiat est considéré bien différemment d’ici. On juge plutôt les étudiants sur leur capacité à réunir des informations sur l’internet et sur leur façon de les présenter dans un travail cohérent.»
Le jeune enseignant fait d’ailleurs une analogie enÂtre le plagiat à la thaïlan-daise et les logiciels libres. «Dans le mouvement open source, tu peux copier les lignes de code d’un programme, améliorer celui-ci en rajoutant tes propres lignes, avant de redonner le programme ainsi amélioré à la communauté du web.»
Sans vouloir faire la promotion de la tricherie, Jonathan croit qu’à l’heure de l’internet, nos écoles et nos universités auraient intérêt à revoir leur définition du plagiat, dont les limites sont bien trop floues, d’après lui. «Quand un professeur-chercheur s’approprie les travaux de ses étudiants, on est dans la même dynamique, et pourtant c’est accepté», conclut-il.
Que penser des logiciels antiplagiat?
Actuellement, plusieurs universités québécoises testent un logiciel anti-plagiat francophone : Compilatio.
Une fois installé, le logiciel analyse le contenu des travaux des étudiants et cherche des phrases équivalentes sur le web. Ce cyberpatrouilleur permet aussi de comparer les différents travaux entre eux, au cas où des petits malins auraient décidé de faire le travail à plusieurs.
Chaque document soumis à l’analyse du logiciel obtient un indice de plagiat. Au-delà de 35 %, la triche est manifeste. Compilatio fournit aussi au professeur les liens internet qui ont été utilisés et surligne les paragraphes plagiés.
Les tests préliminaires réalisés par une cinquantaine de professeurs et de chargés de cours à l’Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR) montrent L’efficacité du logiciel. «Un certain nombre d’entre eux ont trouvé qu’il y avait beaucoup de ressemblances entre les documents analysés et certains sites internet», confie Élisabeth Haghebaert, coordonnatrice du Centre d’aide à la réussite de l’UQAR.
«Selon une étude réalisée auprès de 1 200 étudiants dans de grandes écoles françaises, quatre étudiants sur cinq avouent avoir recours au copier-coller», précise FréÂdéric Agnès, directeur associé de l’entreprise Six degrés, fabricant de CompiÂlatio. Le coût de revient du logiciel se situe entre 1,50 $ et 4,50 $ par an et par étudiant, selon la taille des universités qui l’acquièrent.
À McGill
Lors de son implantation officielle à l’Université McGill en 2006, le logiciel antiplagiat concurrent, Turnitin, a soulevé un tollé chez certains étudiants. Ces derniers invoquaient le respect de la vie privée et refusaient que leurs travaux servent à enrichir la base de données de Turnitin.
Deux ans après son implantation, les professeurs ont le choix ou non de recourir au logiciel. Ils doivent alors prévenir leurs étudiants en début de session.
Actuellement, 50 professeurs et chargés de cours ont montré un intérêt, indique Sylvia Franke, chef des services d’information. Cela semble peu, non ? «Ce n’est qu’un outil parmi toute une gamme d’éléments pour lutter contre le plagiat, tels que l’information et la sensibilisation», répond-elle.
La parole à David Boucher, conseiller en éthique à la Commission de l’éthique de la science et de la technologie
- Quelle est l’ampleur du plagiat à l’école?
- C’est difficile à quantifier, car le plagiat est illégal et répréhensible, alors les étudiants ne se vantent pas d’y recourir. Et aussi parce que beaucoup de ceux qui plagient n’ont pas l’impression de tricher. Pour la génération qui a grandi avec l’internet, quand c’est sur la Toile, c’est public, et on peut piger dedans. Selon un sondage français de 2005, trois étudiants interrogés sur quatre admettaient avoir recours au copier-coller. Une étude pancanadienne d’envergure publiée en 2006 indiquait que seulement 48 % des étudiants au baccalauréat pensaient que copier des phrases sans en citer l’auteur était grave.
- Qu’en est-il du phénomène de la revente de travaux?
- C’est dur à dire. Chose certaine, le milieu anglophone est bien servi, car la communauté est plus grande. Il y a beaucoup de sites internet consacrés à cette activité qui n’ont pas de difficulté à vivre et à engranger des profits. Le reportage de l’émission Enquête montre bien qu’en Grande-Bretagne, ce genre de site n’est pas inquiété par les autorités.
- Les universités prennent-elles le problème au sérieux?
- Dans le cadre de la Commission-Jeunesse mise en place en 2005, j’avais fait le tour de leurs sites internet sur cette question, et c’était très, très pauvre. Mais depuis deux ans, ça répond très fort, car la crédibilité des diplômes est en jeu. Par exemple, l’Université Laval et l’UQAM viennent de réformer leur règlement, McGill a une licence pour le logiciel antiplagiat Turnitin et l’UQAR étudie la possibilité d’utiliser le logiciel Compilatio.net. Des comités de discipline ont aussi été mis en place.
- Quelles ont été les recommandations de la Commission-Jeunesse?
- On suggérait notamment d’aller vers des méthodes différentes d’évaluation des acquis, en favorisant par exemple le travail de laboratoire et les exposés oraux. Il est important aussi de faire de la sensibilisation, car beaucoup de jeunes qui plagient n’ont pas l’impression de faire quelque chose de mal. D’ailleurs, plusieurs universités et cégeps mettent sur pied des sites expliquant ce qu’est le plagiat, pourquoi c’est grave, comment bien citer ses sources, etc. Il faudrait aussi revoir le barème de sanction en s’assurant que ces dernières sont appliquées. Les réformes en cours quant aux règlements des études vont dans ce sens.
Copier le travail de quelqu’un, c’est bien le plagiat, assembler les travaux d’une multitude de personnes et de le publier n’est il pas de la recherche?
January 16th, 2009 — Mauritius
Our little island could well be a dream or wish for the Canadians who this week are living severe weather conditions. This is an extract of an article which appeared on the metro news in Toronto 2 days ago.
It’s not every day that you find yourself piloting a scooter through the corals of the south western Indian Ocean. However, this is exactly how I made my first exploration of the azure blue waters of Mauritius — on what claims to be the world’s only underwater “sub-scooter†safari.
While scooter and rider are submerged three metres under the surface, a transparent dome over your head is pumped with air for so you can breathe normally and chat with your co-driver as you navigate through shoals of brightly-coloured fish. (www.blue-safari.com, based in the resort of Grand Baie, $183 per couple).
Of course, this is just one way of enjoying the bath water-warm ocean around this exquisite volcanic island. Mauritius is famous for long stretches of soft white sandy beaches, as well as the ring of coral reef around it that creates protected lagoons full of exotic fish.
Should you get bored of sunbathing, you can wade into the water with a snorkel. You can usually see plenty of underwater activity within a few metres of the shore, and most hotels offer snorkelling trips where they’ll take you to the most fish-crowded areas of the reef. If you’re keen to see more, diving is spectacular here
If you prefer to be on top of the water, there’s surfing, kayaking, pedalo, sailing and even kite surfing, popular with a hip crowd on the western coast.
Another must is deep-sea fishing. Mauritius is one of the best places in the world to fish for marlin, a large and imposing dark blue fish with a pointed nose. Take a trip with JP Henry Charters, a family-run operation based at the Le Morne Angler’s Club on the western coast, and they’ll send you out with local skippers who will take you to the best fishing spots, sailing past groups of curious dolphins. They’ll ensure that even amateurs hook a share of silver bonito and perhaps a bright yellow dorado, before you are strapped into the chair to put up a fight with a big one. Henry encourages a release policy. (www.blackriver-mauritius.com, from $565 for six people).
With most watersports available at your hotel, its no wonder many visitors to Mauritius never leave the grounds. In fact, with luxurious beachfront hotels, with gourmet restaurants, spas and limitless activities, along with fabulous weather and hospitality, it’s no wonder people come here for their honeymoons and never see the rest of the country.
However, that would be a shame, there is so much more to Mauritius than sea, beach and waving palm trees.
This tiny 2,040-square-kilometre country wasn’t ‘found’ until the 16th century, when it saw a succession of Dutch, then French and British colonisers, bringing with them first slaves from Africa, then Indian and Chinese labourers. The country became independent in 1968 and remains a stable, prosperous and highly literate nation, with a lively and harmonious mix of cultures and religions.
Away from the northern coast, where most of the hotels are based, there is plenty to discover. Take a day trip and you can fit in some of the major sites and get a flavour for Mauritius’ past and the present.
Head towards the capital of Port Louis, and you’ll find Pamplemousse — stop off and visit the botanical gardens here, with its collection of fabulous exotic plants including giant waterlilies given as a gift by Britain’s Queen Victoria.
Port Louis is a bustling harbour town, where you can visit the buzzing markets and browse for cheap clothing — until recently Mauritius was a major player in clothing manufacturing.
Heading south, you’ll come across Curepipe, the upmarket town where Mauritius’ high society resides. Here you’ll also find the Trou aux Cerfs, an extinct volcano, now lush with trees and birdlife, tucked away in the heart of a neighbourhood of 1960s and 1970s bungalows. Continue south and you’ll enter the backbone of verdant countryside, with its valleys, waterfalls including the Alexandra Falls and the Black River Gorge, and fields of sugar cane, Victoria pineapple and tea. Highlights here include the Hindu temple at Grand Bassin, with its sacred lake, and 33-metre high statue called the Mangal Mahadev guarded by families of monkeys (www.Gangatalao.org).
Further along your route you’ll drive through the Plaine Champagne, named after the tiny white flowers that pepper the route. Stop off to see the seven coloured earths of Chamarel, a landscape of blue, green, orange, purple and yellow.
The south is largely unspoiled by tourism, and well worth exploring. Start out at the dramatic Le Morne mountain in the southwest, which was used as a shelter by slaves in the 18th century and was recently named a UNESCO World Heritage site.
The most exclusive hotels might be on the eastern coast, but our favourite is Tamassa in the south. This spacious new four-star design hotel has an upbeat atmosphere and its bright, chic minimalist décor makes a refreshing change from the formal, colonial feel of many of the other hotels in Mauritius. With swimming pools, spa, kids club and watersports on tap it’s a popular choice with both honeymooners and families.
January 14th, 2009 — Chinois, Family stories, Mauritius, Uncategorized

As we move into the Chinese New Year period which this year will be on the 26th January, the rejoicing and joyful parties continue on. Last week end, a great dinner party with the relatives was followed the next day by the Thanks giving dinner ( Van Shin ) of the Chan clan organised the Oy Kin Sa society. Monday evening was another great Peking Duck dinner with my wife’s relatives. I have to restraint my eating in the face of such rich and appetising dishes. More delicious dinners are on for the coming weeks!
I posted on my face book the dishes I had at the Van shin dinner which were typical Hakka dishes: Steam Chicken through Shark fins soup to dried vegetable stew belly pork. Some of my overseas friends on seeing the photos were dying for these dishes. As a dream the flavour and smell were oozing out of the slight blurred pictures and creating induced gastric stimulation of the stomach. From Norway: “all smells very good, but pictures are a little blurry.”From Montreal Canada: comment about your photo in the album “Chinese Hakka meal @ King Palace”:”ayo to faire moi gagne faim!”



January 3rd, 2009 — Uncategorized
Gravelux de Saumon
Salade de Crevettes aux méduses a l’orientale
Salade Verte et composée
Porc a la broche et son G raton
Canard Rôti
Couscous
Cerf Rôti
Jarret de Porc braise
Salmis de poulet
Bêche de mer
Légumes Sautes
Dessert
Bavarois
Gâteaux aux 3 chocolats
Glaces & Kulfi Malai
Plateau de Fromages


et Champagne pour accueillir la nouvelle Année 2009.
Qui parlent de recession, d’inflation !! Amise dimin nou a guetter! A voir le ciel de Roches Brunes le 31decembre!!
January 2nd, 2009 — Uncategorized
For every dreams in our heart, God gives us inspiration
For every hope we seek, God gives us unexpected miracles
May you feel God blessing everywhere
To your enemy, forgiveness
To an opponent, tolerance
To a friend, your heart
To all, love
To every child, a good example
To the world, peace
God Bless
Happy New Year
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January 1st, 2009 — books, Uncategorized
Ilian Mihov says that OBAMA could help US economy to recover by mid-2009. Let us hope that his prediction comes true.
The victory of Barack Obama, the first African-American to become president of the United States, could help the troubled US economy recover by the middle of next year, says Ilian Mihov, professor of economics at INSEAD.
“Obama’s platform when he was campaigning was to increase government spending and cut taxes. If the change is aggressive and very determined, I think the US economy can start recovering by the middle of next year,†Mihov says.
With the US economy being dragged into recession and economic conditions expected to deteriorate further this quarter, the Federal Reserve aggressively cut its key rate to 1.0 per cent from 1.5 per cent at its rate-setting meeting earlier this month.
Mihov believes the Federal Reserve has not necessarily exhausted all the tools needed to stimulate the economy with the recent aggressive rate cut. “Lowering interest rates is necessary but this does not exhaust all the tools available to the Fed in order to stop deteriorating demand.â€
Should economic conditions deteriorate further in the months ahead, the Fed will likely ease rates further to near zero, much like what Japan has done in recent years. But the Fed’s strategic options do not end when key US interest rates fall to zero or near zero.
The Fed can inject liquidity into the financial system by other means other than cutting interest rates, Mihov says. The Fed has been providing liquidity to banks, causing the Fed’s balance sheet to more than double to US$2 trillion from US$890 billion, he says.
But because banks have refused to lend due to the prevailing uncertainty, monetary aggregates in the US are shrinking , prompting the Fed to become the lender of last resort to companies in need.
“The Fed has made unorthodox changes,†Mihov says.
Among the key changes the Fed introduced under the leadership of Ben Bernanke is the purchase of commercial paper from companies which cannot get access to normal credit channels.
“This is unprecedented. At the same time, this is a way of minimising the impact of the credit crunch,†Mihov says, noting that the credit extended by the Fed to cash-strapped companies ballooned to US$240-250 billion within a period of just 10 days.
More work needs to be done to stimulate the economy and counter deflation.
“It remains to be seen whether the US Congress will immediately approve an aggressive fiscal stimulus. As we saw in the case of the US$700 billion bailout package discussions, sometimes politicians do deviate in the wrong direction instead of being focused on the fact that the faster you do this, the smaller will the damage be,†Mihov says.
It took Congress several weeks in September and October to pass the bailout plan even as bank failures in the US mounted, with Lehman Brothers going bankrupt and mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae being nationalised.
The handover of power from George W. Bush to Obama is now crucial.
“Transitions are a very serious issue. If you look at 1932-1933, Roosevelt was elected in November 1932 but somehow he stepped into the White House only in March 1933,†Mihov says.
“The biggest banking panic in the US occurred in January 1933 during the transition when the outgoing president did not have much an incentive to do anything and when the incoming president did not have the power to do much,†he says.
Should the politicians acknowledge the severity of the economic problems and realise that the longer they wait the bigger the problems could become, Mihov says it is possible to start discussing possible solutions and move ahead.