Entries from October 2006 ↓

Most entrepreneurs and more importantly marketers are in the business of influencing consumers to buy and consume their product or services. The basics principles of Attention, Retention, Motivation and Action have been the subject of deep study and publishing by Albert Bandura under his Social Learning Theory. I came to know the works of Bandura because of my reading on human behavior in respect of Modeling behavior and Learning in the business world.

Of particular interest to me today is Albert Bandura’s comments on the effect of Television in the mounting violence and aggressiveness of the society. Are we experiencing now greater violence than a few decades ago? Are we subjected to more sexual aggression? The story of Tyler Richie as accounted by the author is very telling. More so; Albert Bandura supported his theory with experiments and serious studies. I recommend you to read chapter 31 and to promote the reading his theory to our journalists and media.

Drugs addictions, violence in all its forms, pornography suggestive or otherwise are all gaining grounds in our society. Most of us, would not want to see the progress of these modern nuisances. We may well be encouraging and helping to the decay of our future society through sheer ignorance, by accepting that these negative values seep in. What do we hear on the radio and see on our TV everyday? Nothing wrong in openly talking or discussing these “news” items described in exciting formats it would appear? Would we be insidiously introducing counter moral values and unconsciously accepting them or seen to be accepting them?

“Bandura says that people learn from vicarious observation”.

“But arousal researchers note that people also get excited watching suspense, comedy, or sexy bedroom scenes.

In the morning news paper a fortnight or so earlier, the detailed description of the physical and sexual abuses that underwent a victim in the report of a legal court case was shocking to me. The news item was sheer voyeurism or sensationalism. Sometimes I wonder whether the motive of the press is for economic gain above all other considerations.

You will be glad to know that Social Learning theory is very much used in criminology.

Based on this theory,may be, we should support the campaign waged by Veronique Leclezio to ban all publicity on tobacco. Likewise, a total blackout on all advertising media should apply on Alcohol as well!

I found in the Forum section of Le Mauricien last week: “The Choice is ours by Vandana Hunma” most interesting. The essay was published in 4 parts all along the past week Monday through to Saturday. I concur to Vandana’s views on education in Mauritius. I was so enthused that I took the pain to look up the telephone directory to locate her and to congratulate her for her writings. Thereafter, I had an interesting chat with her. I was pleased to have spoken to her and to know her a tiny bit better.

I have to admit that at first the title of the forum attracted me. “The choice is ours” rang a bell to me as I had used very often a power point slide in my leadership training seminar which I had entitled “The choice is mine”. The slide was used to culminate Habit 1 of Stephen Covey’s teaching “Be Proactive”. The essence of which is to recognize that by being proactive: one takes conscience of one’s freedom of choice; one takes ownership of the positive & negative consequences of our choice’s action and one has to think, plan ahead and envision the potential outcomes of one’s action. “Be Proactive” is in opposition to “Be Reactive”.

I see in Vandana’s essay the questioning of the essence of education as practiced in Mauritius. What is the prime aim of our educational system? Is it only to provide more CPE s certificates at primary level to enter the next level? Is it to provide more HSC or SC holders or to provide to a more educated population to meet the challenges of tomorrow? Education for life! Creating an ever learning and regenearting Mauritius organisation! Developping talents for tomorrow’s citizens.

I once, in my fits of wittyness, asked the following question to a candidate that the company’ I was working for, was interviewing for a senior position: “We have seen your numerous qualifications and have read your CV in which gave an account of your past experiences. Now that you have an idea of the deliverables, new position demands, could you indicate to us what are the competencies and skills you possesss and what are the skills and comptencies you need to acquire that will allow you to perform outstandingly should you be recruited for the post?”

Diplomas and qualifications only show and testify what were achieved in the past. What is pertinent is now and the future? Will the curriculum now being used in our education system answer the demands and needs of our forcasted tomorrow?

My wish is to direct us all, Mauritians to the vision of the future. The technical term in the NLP jargon is “Future Pacing”.

Organizations have responded to “leadership” with myriads of education and training resources, which seem to be plentiful, (Amazon.com has over 9,000 references on leadership.), yet most attempts at building high performance leadership are either far too complex or too simplistic to be of any practical use to leaders who need to make things happen.I found from the net, an article from Brian Ward, who in a nut shell gives briefly and to the point the 5 key facets of leadership.You may of course join in one of the seminars of Brian Ward to learn more about his methodology. I fancy & love the acronym FACET.

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So what does work?

In working with leaders we have isolated five key characteristics that successful leaders demonstrate. These work extremely well whether the emphasis is on ‘quality’ or some other approach to building and sustaining a customer focused, team based organization that pays as much attention to results as it does to process…a high performance organization.

Here are the five key facets of high performance leadership:

Focus – Authenticity – Courage – Empathy – Timing

Focus
Effective leaders stay focused on the outcomes they wish to create, and don’t get too married to the methods used to achieve them. They provide this ‘outcomes focus’ for their organization by emphasizing the mission, vision, values and strategic goals of their organization and at the same time building the capacity of their organizations to achieve them. This capacity building emphasizes the need to be flexible, creative and innovative and avoid becoming fossilized through the adoption of bureaucratic structures, policies and processes.

Authenticity
Leaders who are authentic attract followers, even leaders who are viewed as being highly driven and difficult to work for. Simply put, they are viewed as always being themselves…and therefore followers know what to expect from them and can rely on them, come thick or thin. Authenticity provides the leader with the currency to obtain ‘buy-in’ from key stakeholders, because it builds and maintains trust. Authenticity is the bedrock upon which the other facets are built.

Courage
The challenges facing leaders today are immense, and require great courage to overcome. Leaders are constantly being challenged by others, be it their own team, customers, the public or other stakeholders. Standing firm in the face of criticism, yet having the courage to admit when they are wrong, are hallmarks of courageous leaders. For example, shifting an organization from being introspective to becoming customer focused requires courage when people pay lip service to the new direction…it means calling people on their bluff.

Empathy
Effective leaders know how to listen empathetically…thus legitimizing others’ input. By doing so, they promote consensus building, and build strong teams. They coach others to do the same, and so create a culture of inclusiveness. They tend to be great listeners who capitalize on the ideas of others, and provide recognition for these ideas, yet they don’t get bogged down in overly complicated dialogue. While they create learning organizations that place a high value on dialogue and continuous feedback, they know when to take action, when to ‘fish or cut bait’, which brings us on to the final facet…

Timing
The one facet that can make or break a leader is in knowing when to make critical decisions and when not to. All of the other facets must be viewed as subservient to getting the timing of critical decisions right. There is a need to be focused, authentic, courageous and empathetic, but get the timing wrong on critical decisions and everything else stands to be nullified. Great leaders move with appropriate speed. They don’t believe that everything must be done immediately…they know how to prioritize, and how to get their team to prioritize. As well, they engage in timely follow-through to ensure actions that are committed to happen in a well coordinated and timely way.

Is that all it takes to be a great leader?

These facets of high performance leadership are not exhaustive. Just as one would look at the facets of a diamond, upon closer observation other facets become observable. Any person can aspire to being a great leader by commencing with these facets. If you are in a leadership role, regardless of your position in your organization, start by asking yourself the following key questions:

What can you do to create a high performance leadership culture?

Asking these questions in a candid way will open up many possibilities for you, your organization or your clients…if you have the courage to do it.

Building and sustaining a high performance leadership culture takes time, patience and a clear focus on the vital few characteristics that leaders can develop naturally and authentically. Listening to what people expect from you as a leader, and then responding empathically, in a timely fashion, will move you dramatically towards mastering these five key facets of high performance leadership.

Above all, you need to TAKE ACTION.

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In 1998, I had decided to finish my NLP certifications and took the “NLP train the trainer” course with NLP Comprehensive in Colorado USA. Whilst, I was undergoing the training with Lara Ewing, Gerry Smith,Jo Salas and other tutors, I linked up friendship with Jenny Edwards who was one of the numerous assistants of the program. Jenny shared with me her path career and told me that I should meet up with Fr. Gonzalez who would be visiting Madagascar soon after our meeting.

On my return home, I immediately contacted Fr. Gonzalez, who was professor of the Urbaniana University in Vatican City, to set up an appointment with him during his visit that year in Antananarivo. He very readily accepted to register me in a 4 day retreat that he was giving to the priests and religious persons on spiritually and NLP.

There, a few months after, I landed at Itochoa, in a Carmelite convent in company of religious participants. A very funny anecdote happened to me. On the first day of the retreat or seminar, as it is customary, the participants were asked to present themselves. In turn, we heard: “Brother so and so, been in the Carmelite congregation since X year. I am presently in Y village, responsible for the orphanage.” “Father so and so, of X Company, chaplain of Y church covering the territory of Z district.” It went on the same format for a number of times from each participant. When my turn came I said: « Père de la famille YIPTONG depuis une vingtaine année, ayant pour responsabilite la gestion et le progres de la Famille composee de Madame YIPTONG et d une fille et un garcon » The whole assembly got out of the serious atmosphere in bursts of laughter !

Fr. Luis Gonzalez shared plenty of his experiences with us and the most I retained was the use of NLP principles to bring change in our life. He must have written some 60 books, mostly published in Spanish his mother tongue. Some of them have been translated in English. Later, he told me that he visited Mauritius some years before and had run seminars for the Mauritian clergy.

As most great man, he was very kind and simple in his approach and very soft spoken. Talking to him, I could feel goodness, passion and love being radiated from him to reach my being. Thanks to Jenny Edwards for the introduction and Glory to God for the meeting with Fr. Luis. I have a collection of the English editions of Fr. Luis Gonzalez books which I read and reread all so often? The one on my bed side table now is NLP Success and personal Excellence.

In my last blog, I mentioned perceptual positioning and linked the words to the NLP University site.

A reader wrote back to me, to tell me that the term and the link is fine for guys who have the time to study the subject. Today, many of us are time scarce zappers he said. Give us the stuff in simple form!

For the benefits of those readers who are of the same opinion, I shall attempt to explain briefly the Perceptual Positions (PP). Mind you in a practictioner NLP course, the subject is taught for a minimum of 3 days. Luckily the concept is simple but to build up the unconscious competence in PP takes time.

These positions refer to the perspective you adopt, at some moment, to perceive your world, other people or your problems. NLP, “the science of alternatives”, shows you that when facing life and its difficulties you rely on different options to choose the perspective that suits you best.

You may choose, from among at least 4 different positions:

1. Actor

You let the world in through your 5 senses

2. Partner

You virtually enter into another person’s skin to feel through his senses.

3. Observer

You transcend the 1^st and 2^nd position to observe another person and yourself from outside.

4. Meta Observer or Creator(God)

If you are a believer, through faith you move into God’s heart to see the world and men with God’s eyes.

Surely, you can imagine how great men in history are able to choose from among these positions and make use of them according to circumstances.

If you want to be successful in the art of living, i.e. to keep life healthy and happy, you too need to use these different positions. For instance if somebody is aggressively abusing you and you are in 1^st position, you’ll become his puppet. You’ll no longer be a person in his eyes. He’ll make you feel either very angry or very discouraged, as if he held the strings of your heart in his hands.

When dealing with a destructive person, a negative situation or a difficult problem, you should avoid taking the 1^st position at all costs. Use the other positions.

On the other hand, before a beautiful landscape, a person, a constructive issue, you should open up all your senses. Take the 1^st Position and cherish the moment, the here & now.

To enhance the understanding of your counterpart, don’t you often 2^nd position the person? You need to get into his shoes to understand his perspective, his experience, his way of thinking.

The 3^rd position also called the observer position, allows you to see things coolly and more objectively. It allows you to observe the interaction you might have with a counterpart and comment in your own mind the interaction. From this perspective, it will be easier for you to suggest ideas and actions to yourself that may lead to success. The 3^rd position places you in a creative perspective.

The 4^th position, the metaobserver or transcendental one, you can see the whole situation from a much wider point of view. Imagine being assisted by omniscience, omnipotent angel.

In a nut shell:The idea is to build in the Perceptual Positioning skills in your operating mode all the time. This will allow you in any interaction, to have perspectives: which allow you to feel your senses instantly (1^st), understand your counterpart (2^nd), comment, amend,enhance and criticize the interaction (3^rd) and at the same time take in account a larger view point.

It has become a habit of mine to always ask the question: “What for?” To think about it, this should be the recurrent question. Is it the essence of purpose to any action we undertake?

During my numerous seminars, I used to run, not only will I ask the participants to work out the purpose of their attendance, I would also suggest that they ask themselves sucessively the same question “what for”for a couple of rounds to the answers they may work out. I want them to reach the “meta” purpose of their purpose. If you prefer, the ultimate purpose.

I much prefer “what for” to “why”. “Why” could deviate the answer to philosophical thinking whilst “what for” would attempt to discover the ultimate purpose.

Entrepreneurs are too often head down in the action of performing whatever they are doing, without having a clear vision of the purpose of their actions. An external person, usually a consultant, would ask: “What is your mission?” or “do you have a mission statement?” A hazy, blurred answer would often be given. If somebody would ask you “what for, and why are you going to Port Louis”.What will your counterpart think if he got a hazy, blurred answer? Either you do not want to give a straight answer or you do not know what you are doing.I would ask you to try this question to your colleagues or friends: “What for, or why do you work?”

Should you have a well thought of and defined & specific purpose, I am of opinion that you stand a much better chance of achieving the purpose. “Elementaire”, dirait Watson.” Stephen Covey always likes to rightly say: “Common sense is not always common practice”.

I came across the book: Purpose: The starting point of great companies by Nikos Mourkogiannis, which I must admit I have not yet read. The extract of the book , of which you may have a copy is well to the point I am driving at. Purpose!

Anybody sensible would always have a purpose for any action. As common sense is not always common practice, you would be surprised how often we do things without a definite and specific purpose. Is it out of laziness or unconscious behaviour? Or we are more concerned with the “how” of the things we do instead of the “why” and “what for”. Purpose driven people are more thinkers than doers. To correct this state of things, and to increase our thinking skills, I propose that we train ourselves in perceptual positionning.

A number of us might be familiar with the four stages of learning which has been used for decades and has been highly promoted by a number of training or learning institutions of the like of World famous Thomas Gordon. I personally came across the stages of learning on my NLP courses.

Building a learning organisation as advocated by Peter Senge is one of the pillars any entrepreneur should strive for.

Many researchers now postulate, Thinking that stage four of the model mentioned, as being the ultimate,caps progress. It brings complacency.That is the reason, a fifth stage is now being introduced to perfect the much used conscious/competence Matrix. Some researchers in learning David Baume, amongst others, are suggesting a fifth stage called reflective comptence.

Reflective Competence would be the qualifier to outstanding performances delivered on demand in sports, by Tiger Woods or Micheal Jourdan. This would not be dissimilar to Capabilty Maturity Model as used in software development. The 5 levels defined as: initial, repeatable, defined, managed and optimised.

Dengue fever, Malaria and Chickungunya have been very much on the news this week. The common thread is Aedes albopictus, the formidable stripped mosquito, known also as the Tiger mosquito.I found  Wikipedia quite up to date thereon.

Here is my story of the stripped Mosquito.

This reminds me my school days, when, I had the chance to have a break away from school. My treat was to rush to Jardin Balfour and walk down the banks of the river to reach the Balfour water falls. At the foot of the falls, especially in summer, in company of the school mates, we would enjoy the cooling and wonderful atmosphere of a swim in the river. There after, we would armed ourselves with our specially implements for the catch of Camarons. Bambous were used to hold the bait made of lumps of bread. A lasso made of selected and purposed engineered grass weed to hook the delicious and precoius preys, was used with great skill to lift up the camarons whilst they were enjoying our bread.

Skills, patience and stillness were the absolute qualities needed from the errant school boy turned fisherman. Whilst I had my attention & vision fully committed on the prey some 3 feets below in the clear water of the bed of the river and both hands busy, holding on the left the bamboo bearing the bait and on the right the lasso to hook the camaron, came bzzzzzz the stripped mosquito on my bare thigh. There was no way to shake off of the sucker who found in me fresh blood to quench his thirst.I decided that I shall go for my camaron at all cost and would support the painful sting of the monster mosquito. My eyes were playing pingpong. A few seconds I focused in the bed of the river through the crystal clear water, slowly waiting for the camaron to back up into my lasso to loop my prey and the next second in complete stillness, watching the skinny Tiger mosquito drawing blood from the stung thigh. I was almost there, the loop had got to half the body length of the camaron and I just need a few millimeters more to hook my trophy.In the while the Tiger Mosquito drew so much blood that it swelled like a ballon. The skinny became round and heavy. Having finished the business and had his fill, he took off. The mosquito was so heavy that he felt in the water, causing a commotion and ripple in the water. The stillness was broken causing my Camron to run away.

To hell “Aedes Albopictus.”

La prospective du monde est un sujet qui mintéresse et elle devrait intéresser surtout les entrepreneurs et dirigeants. Je vous livre ici ce texte glané sur le web. Il y a-t-il un dirigeant mauricien qui se soucie de la position de notre pays sur la carte mondiale en 2025 ?

Un rapport réalisé pour l’Union européenne dresse les grandes tendances du monde dans vingt ans. Fruit des travaux de chercheurs de tous les continents, cette synthèse, dont “La Croix” rend compte en exclusivité, indique aussi des pistes pour l’avenir de l’Europe

Une résidence de personnes âgées à Pékin, en octobre 2004. Les personnes âgées de plus de 65 ans vont passer de 7 % de la population chinoise aujourdhui à 20 % en 2025 (Photo Parks/AFP).

Comment sera le monde en 2025 ? LInstitut détudes de sécurité (IES) de lUnion européenne a passé au crible plus de 700 rapports établis par des agences spécialisées, des centres de recherche, des organismes internationaux, à travers le monde.

Chargé de nourrir la réflexion du haut représentant de lUnion européenne pour la politique de défense et de sécurité, Javier Solana, lIES présentera le fruit de son travail vendredi 6 octobre, lors de sa conférence annuelle à Paris. En avant-première, La Croix présente les grandes tendances constatées par les chercheurs, qui ont privilégié les scénarios médians.

La Chine aussi vieillit

Le vieillissement de la population nest pas le propre des pays les plus avancés. La Chine aussi y sera confrontée. Les personnes âgées de plus de 65 ans vont passer de 7 % de la population chinoise aujourdhui à 20 % en 2025. « La rapidité de cette évolution va créer des problèmes sociaux considérables et devrait ralentir la croissance économique chinoise », estime le rapport. LInde aura en 2025 une population de taille comparable, à 1,44 milliard dhabitants, mais beaucoup plus jeune.

Cest surtout au Japon et en Russie que le vieillissement de la population va devenir un défi de première importance. Le nombre total dhabitants va légèrement baisser au Japon, mais, surtout, lâge médian de la population va passer de 42,9 à 50 ans. La population active va se réduire fortement et le poids sur le système des retraites va saccroître. En Russie, la baisse de la population déjà amorcée pourrait atteindre 10 % en 2025 par rapport à 2005, à 129,2 millions dhabitants.

LUnion européenne (dans sa taille actuelle) verra sa population vieillir. Les États-Unis seront le seul grand pays industrialisé à échapper à cette tendance, du fait de limmigration. Non seulement, la population américaine augmentera (+ 17 %, à 364 millions en 2030), mais la part des actifs, les 20-64 ans, ne sérodera que très peu.

En revanche, lAfrique et le Moyen-Orient connaîtront des élans démographiques. La population devrait croître de 43 % à 48 % dans lAfrique subsaharienne et de 38 % dans la région Afrique du Nord-Moyen Orient, et ce alors que le niveau de développement restera très bas.

Les délocalisations continuent

La délocalisation de productions ou de services exigeant beaucoup de main-duvre va prendre de lampleur. Ce mouvement qui représentait en 2002 une valeur de un milliard deuros aura été multiplié par 20 dès lan prochain. Que ce soit en ouvrant une filiale dans un pays étranger ou en confiant sa production à une firme étrangère, les entreprises des pays développés auront dautant plus recours aux délocalisations que le progrès technologique, notamment dans le secteur des technologies de linformation et de la communication, les faciliteront. De quoi alimenter, prévient le rapport, des « tensions sociales et des réflexes protectionnistes ».

Toutefois, les trois puissances économiques avancées que sont les États-Unis, lUnion européenne et le Japon maintiendront en leur sein leurs secteurs les plus liés à la recherche-développement.

LEurope restera compétitive dans ses secteurs industriels clés, comme les télécommunications, lautomobile et laéronautique. « Il ne faut toutefois pas évacuer la possibilité que la Chine rattrape son retard dans les technologies de linformation, la biotechnologie et laéronautique, que Pékin a définies comme ses domaines de recherche prioritaires », indique le rapport. En 2025, le groupe des cinq plus grosses économies de la planète sera, quoi quil en soit, constitué par les États-Unis, la Chine, le Japon, lInde et lAllemagne.

Le pétrole et le charbon, toujours indispensables

En 2025, la pression sur les sources dénergie sera encore plus forte quaujourdhui. La demande mondiale devrait être de 50 % supérieure à ce quelle est actuellement. Les pays en développement représenteront les deux tiers de cette progression.

Le pétrole restera lénergie la plus demandée et représentera comme aujourdhui 35 % de la consommation totale dénergie. La consommation de gaz naturel connaîtra une croissance de 87 % dici à 2030. Celle du charbon croîtra dans des pays émergents comme lInde ou la Chine, qui utilisent ce minerai, présent dans leur sous-sol en abondance, pour leurs productions électriques. Lénergie nucléaire déclinera en Europe, par choix politique, alors quelle fera lobjet dinvestissements importants en Asie.

Cette évolution va entraîner une nette augmentation de lémission des gaz à effet de serre. Limpact sur le changement climatique sera sensible surtout à partir de 2030. La hausse des températures et la baisse de la pluviométrie concerneront surtout les régions arides et semi-arides comme le Moyen-Orient, la Corne de lAfrique, lAfrique du Nord, le sud de lAfrique, le nord-ouest de la Chine et lAsie centrale.

Selon le rapport, les ressources énergétiques sont « très probablement suffisantes », pour peu que des investissements « massifs » soient réalisés et que les pays producteurs permettent laccès à leurs réserves. Actuellement, 57 % des réserves mondiales de pétrole ne sont pas accessibles à des compagnies étrangères aux pays producteurs. Du fait de limportance de ses réserves, le Moyen-Orient continuera à jouer un rôle pivot en matière dhydrocarbures, malgré lémergence du pétrole de la mer Caspienne et du golfe de Guinée.

De nouvelles maladies

explosion démographique et urbaine, associée à la dégradation de lenvironnement et le réchauffement de la planète, pourrait conduire à lémergence de « nouvelles maladies », provoquées par des nouvelles souches virales. Le rapport met aussi en garde contre la possible réémergence de maladies plus anciennes ou la diffusion à plus large échelle de pathologies sévissant jusque-là dans certaines zones régionales.

Chaque année, dans le monde, le paludisme, le VIH-sida et la tuberculose tuent déjà six millions de personnes, principalement en Afrique et en Asie. Les seuls cas de tuberculose ont augmenté de 20 % au cours des dix dernières années. «Certaines prévisions indiquent que 35 millions de personnes pourraient mourir de la tuberculose dici à 2025, si cette tendance se poursuit», souligne le rapport. «Ces maladies mais aussi la dengue, les fièvres, les infections respiratoires et diarrhéiques menace le développement économique de régions entières», avertit le rapport.

Comment limiter le développement de ces maladies actuelles et futures et leur impact dramatique au niveau économique ? Les perspectives dans ce domaine restent « incertaines » selon le rapport. « Cela va autant dépendre de la mise au point future de vaccins et de traitements préventifs que du développement économique et social des zones concernées », soulignent les experts, qui mettent aussi en garde contre lémergence de nouveaux agents pathogènes. « Chaque année, un ou deux nouveaux agents sont identifiés et leurs mutations potentielles sont toujours très difficiles à prévoir », concluent les experts en citant lexemple du Sras ou de la grippe aviaire.

Un monde plus interdépendant

En 2025, le monde sera plus interdépendant et plus interconnecté mais en même temps plus divers et plus inégal. Donc, potentiellement plus instable et plus conflictuel. En labsence dun système politique international clairement établi comme la confrontation Est-Ouest au temps de la guerre froide, la mondialisation continuera à être le facteur dominant. En labsence dune puissance hégémonique, aucun État ne sera en mesure de dicter seul les règles du jeu. Il sera plus difficile dagir collectivement dans des domaines comme la lutte contre la pauvreté ou la protection de lenvironnement.

Enfin, la capacité du monde occidental à peser sur les affaires internationales sera en question, au moment où sa part dans la population et léconomie mondiales se réduiront. LOccident aura de plus en plus de mal à définir le calendrier international et des nouvelles formes de coopération internationale devront être trouvées.

Ce système multipolaire pourra favoriser la coopération multilatérale aussi bien que la concurrence entre puissances pour laccès aux ressources énergétiques, aux marchés et aux sphères dinfluences. Le choix pour les États-Unis et lEurope pourrait être entre un système de gouvernance collectif et inclusif sur une base multilatérale ou une nouvelle forme de bipolarité idéologique opposant une alliance des démocraties au reste du monde.

Les États-Unis, puissance contestée

Les États-Unis maintiendront leur statut de superpuissance mais sans forcément réussir à préserver la position hégémonique quils occupent depuis la fin de la guerre froide. Véritable exception dans le monde développé, la population américaine augmentera, en grande partie sous leffet de limmigration hispanique. En 2025, les États-Unis seront plus hispaniques, une société pratiquement bilingue avec une plus grande exigence de protection sociale.

La demande pour un rôle accru de lÉtat pourrait augmenter, face aux défis du terrorisme et de limmigration illégale. Linégalité dans la distribution de la richesse continuera de se creuser. La religion restera un facteur important dans les comportements et les attitudes sociales mais son impact sur la vie publique ne devrait pas beaucoup changer.

À lavenir, lexpérience irakienne devrait contribuer à renforcer aux États-Unis la conscience de leurs limites, en termes de moyens et dinfluence. Il nempêche. Lopinion publique américaine devrait rester aux antipodes de lopinion mondiale sur des questions clés comme le protocole de Kyoto, la guerre préventive, le rôle de lONU ou laide sociale. Lévolution de la relation états-Unis-Chine, entre rivalité et interdépendance, sera lun des paramètres clés du futur ordre international. La sécurité des approvisionnements énergétiques continuera à structurer la stratégie américaine, qui visera à donner plus dimportance à lAfrique et à lAmérique latine au détriment du Moyen-Orient.

LAfrique et le Moyen-Orient enlisés

LAfrique et le Moyen-Orient vont demeurer des régions dinstabilité chronique à lhorizon 2025, avec de nombreux risques dexacerbation du fait des évolutions démographiques, climatologiques et économiques. Si des scénarios optimistes basés sur une meilleure gouvernance laissent espérer une amélioration de léconomie, atténuant la pression de la génération en âge de travailler, les analystes misent plutôt sur laggravation de deux facteurs : la polarisation de léconomie sur les matières premières et la persistance de conflits.

Ils prévoient une forte augmentation de la production pétrolière en Afrique subsaharienne, notamment en Angola et au Nigeria, ainsi que dans le monde arabe, où lon envisage une hausse de 74 % de lextraction pétrolière et un triplement de la production de gaz dici à 2030. Dans le même temps, labsence de révolution verte en Afrique subsaharienne devrait entraîner une plus grande dépendance alimentaire vis-à-vis de lextérieur.

Le conflit israélo-palestinien va plus que jamais « servir de catalyseur et de démultiplicateur des tensions régionales » dans un contexte de dilemme croissant entre démocratisation et islamisation. « Al-Qaida en tant que tel est un phénomène transitoire, mais le jihadisme continue de croître », affirme le rapport, qui insiste notamment sur la montée en puissance du chiisme. Au sud du Sahara, plusieurs aires de conflits régionaux (Afrique de lOuest, Grands Lacs et triangle Soudan-Tchad-Centrafrique) devraient perdurer, malgré la présence dune Afrique du Sud prometteuse.

Quatre nouveaux pays à la table des grands

Le produit intérieur brut de la Chine devrait tripler dici à 2025 et faire de cette économie la deuxième plus importante au monde après les États-Unis. Mais, pour bénéficier dune croissance durable, la Chine devra affronter son problème environnemental : 800 millions de Chinois vivront alors dans les villes ; la Chine représentera 19 % des émissions mondiales de CO2 et les trois quarts de ses rivières seront polluées. Sur le plan politique, peu douverture est à attendre dans un proche avenir. On peut estimer que la Chine évoluera vers un régime «autoritaire soft».

LInde deviendra en 2025 la quatrième puissance économique mondiale. Cette démocratie devra continuer à mener sa « discrimination positive », afin de promouvoir les castes inférieures car son développement économique risquera de creuser les disparités régionales et de marginaliser sa minorité musulmane, forte de 130 millions dIndiens. Sur le plan international, elle jouera la carte américaine, pour contrebalancer la montée de la Chine et le fondamentalisme des musulmans dAsie du Sud-Est.

En Amérique latine, deux pays vont également simposer, le Mexique, arrimé aux États-Unis, et le Brésil, pôle économique solide pour ses voisins.

La Russie, plus riche, moins forte

Adieu, le souvenir de lURSS ! Dans vingt ans, les vastes territoires de lEurasie auront vu saffirmer des sous-ensembles régionaux. Toute lAsie centrale regardera davantage vers Pékin et moins vers Moscou, tandis que la Moldavie, lUkraine et la Biélorussie, tout comme le sud du Caucase, subiront lattraction de lUnion européenne et de lOtan.

La Russie, de son côté, est en passe de redevenir un pays riche grâce à ses ressources pétrolières et gazières. Dans vingt ans, son PIB devrait être léquivalant de celui de la France et lItalie réunies, alors quaujourdhui, il est inférieur à celui de la France. Mais la Russie devra faire face à des défis existentiels. La chute du nombre dhabitants, due à la mortalité élevée et à la faible natalité va saccélérer dautant que leffet de lépidémie de sida va se faire sentir.

De plus, les inégalités vont se creuser entre certaines régions riches appartenant au « premier monde » et dautres, délaissées, qui se retrouveront avec les problèmes du tiers-monde, désertées par les plus jeunes qui iront chercher du travail dans les villes prospères. Dès lors, la question de lévolution du régime actuel, de type « démocratique autoritaire », demeure entière.

LEurope soumise à une rude concurrence

LEurope va être soumise dune façon croissante aux effets de la globalisation de léconomie. Sa base industrielle va se réduire, ce qui entraînera dimportantes réductions demploi dans des secteurs à forte main-duvre.

Elle pourra toutefois maintenir une position forte dans les productions à grande valeur ajoutée, comme la chimie, la pharmacie, les télécommunications ou les énergies renouvelables, à condition de rester performante dans linnovation technologique. Cela nécessiterait un effort de recherche et développement supérieur à 3 % du PIB, ce qui est loin dêtre le cas aujourdhui. Sur les secteurs des biotechnologies et des nanotechnologies, la concurrence des États-Unis et de la Chine sannonce très rude.

Ces changements surviendront dans un contexte de raréfaction et de vieillissement de la population active qui va nécessiter de lourdes réformes des systèmes de sécurité sociale, des marchés du travail et des systèmes éducatifs. La population totale de lEurope à 25 va continuer à saccroître, de 458 millions à 470 millions dhabitants en 2025, mais celle de lAllemagne, de lItalie et de lEspagne va diminuer. Le nombre des personnes âgées de 65 à 79 ans va augmenter de 37 %. Limmigration devrait se poursuivre au rythme de 600 000 à un million de personnes par an mais cela ne renversera pas la pression sur les systèmes de retraite et de sécurité sociale.

En 2025, lEurope sera toujours lune des régions les plus sûres et les plus riches du monde mais son voisinage sera turbulent. Les violences politiques, religieuses et ethniques au Proche et Moyen-Orient pourraient conduire à leffondrement des régimes pro-occidentaux ; la pauvreté en Afrique va maintenir la pression migratoire ; la Russie pourrait devenir un « partenaire » insaisissable.

Pierre BIENVAULT, Pierre Cochez, François dALANÇON, Laurent dERSU, Alain GUILLEMOLES, Sébastien Maillard, Jean-Christophe PLOQUIN

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Wow ! I met with an old friend this week. Old acquaintance of some 48years Bob is. He has not been very present in Mauritius recently mainly due to his frequent overseas trips. I learnt only now, that he conducted a survey for Harvard to identify and evaluate the quality of treatment dispensed by Ayurvedic centers in India. I found my man. Through his contact and network, Bob is trying to fit me with the best of the best for my condition.

It has been my wish to go for Ayurvedic treatment in India for a while. I understood from a common friend that Iqbal M… who had severe nerves and muscles atrophies following a car accident had made spectacular progress following Ayurvedic treatments.

Needless to say, I have been the last few days an avid searcher of the internet on Ayurveda. The more I read the more I like it. I feel very comfortable as Ayurveda seems to be close to some of my deep roofed beliefs. Mind body & soul are part of the same system and are interlinked. This axiom is the basis concept of psychoneuroimmunity. Humans are influenced by the 5 elements: Vata is Ether and Air; Pitta is Fire and Water; Kapha is Water and Earth. The Chinese TAO principle finds a new value to me.

You can understand now my new excitement. I am looking forward to a trip to India soon. Very much for me a return to memory lanes where in my younger dates I had at the start of my working life, I had so many discoveries.

The trip to India is definetly a new challenge to look forward to and new experiences to live for!